BTC Price ‘Bottoming Phase’ Concludes: Insights on Bitcoin’s Weekly Outlook
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin prices suggest potential long-term lows as external economic factors intensify.
- Federal Reserve’s decisions loom large amidst broader global economic shifts affecting market stability.
- Precious metals hit historic highs, but cryptocurrencies lag behind.
- Short-term Bitcoin holders are showing signs of distress in a volatile market environment.
WEEX Crypto News, 2026-01-26 13:54:38
As the cryptocurrency market grapples with ongoing turbulence, Bitcoin (BTC) edges towards the end of what analysts are terming a ‘bottoming phase.’ This week’s developments are particularly significant with various macroeconomic and geopolitical factors converging, potentially reshaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. A major theme of this week includes Bitcoin battling its way in a macro backdrop filled with volatility, geopolitical unrest, and a notable divergence from traditional assets like precious metals.
Bitcoin’s Trajectory Amidst Market Volatility
Bitcoin has seen sharp fluctuations recently, with its price dropping to about $86,000 just as the week closed, a figure anticipated by many market participants. Trading data indicates that buyers tried holding the line in Asia’s first trading sessions of the week, with the formidable $90,000 price level remaining elusive.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared thoughts on social media platform X, underscoring the impending volatility predicted to span not only crypto but also traditional markets like forex, commodities, and bonds. He suggests the current bearish atmosphere might lay the groundwork for what could be a ‘generational buying opportunity.’
Keith Alan, cofounder of Material Indicators, emphasized the bearish tenor of Bitcoin, marked by its weekly closing below significant technical levels. Alan urges caution as a close below the $87,500 benchmark and the 100-week simple moving average (SMA) at $87,250 could trigger adverse market reactions.
Broader Economic Events Impacting Bitcoin
The Federal Reserve’s actions this week are pivotal for market participants, holding implications across economic sectors. With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) anticipated to shed light on interest rate policy, traders are bracing for potential market swings. The FOMC’s decision will be coupled with remarks from Jerome Powell, who will likely address ongoing tensions with President Trump, as economic policy remains a hot-button issue. Strategic shifts in interest rates could reverberate through the market, mostly if Powell aligns with Trump’s call for lowering rates to 1%, providing a looser monetary policy environment.
Simultaneously, the markets remain wary of international economic strains, particularly those emanating from Japan and possible Fed strategies involving the yen, influencing global trade dynamics.
Analyzing the Divergence: Cryptocurrencies vs. Precious Metals
A notable economic narrative emerging at the moment is the stark outperformance of precious metals compared to cryptocurrencies. Gold and silver have surged past $5,000 and $100 benchmarks, respectively, breaking historical records. This dynamic showcases a growing disparity as traditional market hedges gain in light of crypto stagnation.
Analysts ponder the implications of this inverse relationship, with The Kobeissi Letter asking, “Where is Bitcoin?” as this opposite trend advances. The soaring silver prices, up significantly over more than a year, further complicate the landscape, having surged impressively compared to Bitcoin’s decrease, resulting in silver’s market cap dwarfing BTC by over threefold.
Van de Poppe adds insight into the shifting crypto dynamics versus gold, positing that Bitcoin is the cheapest it has ever been when compared to gold—a situation that could signal a potential market adjustment ahead as money shifts back into undervalued crypto assets.
Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holders and Market Behavior
Market analyses also reveal an extensive capitulation of short-term Bitcoin holders. As Bitcoin’s price action remains constrained, these investors are selling off at a loss, compounded by high volatility. Checkonchain data suggests the prevalence of these loss-biased transactions is setting new records, surpassing previous lows, including those seen during the 2022 bear market.
CryptoQuant’s further assessments reveal a stark metric: Bitcoin’s supply in profit has dipped to 62%, a low not observed since 2024, suggesting potential further declines and solidifying bearish market sentiments.
Understanding Bitcoin Sales Dynamics
Despite the seemingly foreboding setup, detailed market insights hint that Bitcoin’s recent downturn to $86,000 isn’t necessarily indicative of panic. Volume delta across key exchanges like Binance portrays controlled selling pressure rather than a widespread liquidation event. Arab Chain’s analysis emphasizes this restrained selling, noting large orders yet steady price actions—alluding to significant liquidity absorption that cushions broader market shocks.
Such conditions reflect a ‘tactical’ market phase where rebalancing predominates instead of panic, maintaining market structure intact even as temporary price declines happen. Against this backdrop, WEEX remains a supportive platform for traders navigating through these challenging times, offering tools and insights to align with market shifts effectively.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors are leading to current Bitcoin price volatility?
The current Bitcoin price volatility is attributed to geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainties such as interest rate decisions by central banks like the Federal Reserve, and a broader environment of economic instability impacting various markets.
Why are precious metals outperforming cryptocurrencies?
Precious metals like gold and silver are historically seen as safe-haven assets, offering stability against economic downturns and currency fluctuations. Their recent performance is enhanced by concerns over market volatility and inflation pressures, leading investors to favor them over more speculative assets like cryptocurrencies.
How are short-term Bitcoin holders impacting the market?
Short-term Bitcoin holders, who purchased BTC less than six months ago, are significantly influencing the market by selling at a loss during price downturns. Their transactions account for a high proportion of trading activity, especially during volatile times, affecting market dynamics.
What does the term ‘bottoming phase’ mean for Bitcoin?
In trading, the ‘bottoming phase’ refers to a period where an asset, such as Bitcoin, is believed to have reached its lowest price and may enter a period of recovery or stabilization. Identifying this phase is crucial for traders looking to capitalize on potential upward trends.
How might Federal Reserve policies impact Bitcoin?
Federal Reserve policies, particularly those involving interest rates, can impact Bitcoin by influencing investor sentiment and liquidity flow in the broader market. Rate cuts or a loose monetary policy generally boost riskier assets like cryptocurrencies by encouraging investments seeking higher returns.
You may also like
SpaceX vs Tesla vs xAI: Which Elon Musk Trade Has the Biggest Upside in 2026?
OpenAI Reveals It Has Confidentially Submitted an S-1 to the SEC, Keeping the Door Open for a Future IPO
On June 9, according to an OpenAI announcement, the company recently confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), beginning the preliminary compliance process for a potential initial public offering. OpenAI said it chose to disclose this proactively because it expected the news might leak; however, the company has not yet set a specific listing timeline, and related arrangements may still take some time.
Latest research from 13 top universities including Cornell University: The current state, challenges, and misconceptions of the fusion of Crypto and AI
Deconstructing Anthropic: The Best AI Company, Possibly Also a Type of Organizational Invention
Apollo and Blackstone Reportedly Back $35 Billion Anthropic Chip Financing as Deal Details Remain Unclear
On June 9, according to currently available news alerts, Apollo and Blackstone Group participated in a $35 billion financing for an Anthropic “chip project.” Based on the original wording of the report, the funding has already been raised, but public information remains limited. The financing structure, use of proceeds, project entity, and whether Apollo and Blackstone participated through equity, debt, or project financing have not yet been disclosed.
Humanity Protocol Security Incident Escalates: More Than $31 Million Stolen From Related Addresses as Attacker Continues Selling H for ETH
On June 9, according to monitoring by Onchain Lens, more than $31 million has been stolen from addresses linked to Humanity Protocol, and the attack is still ongoing, with the hacker continuously swapping H tokens for ETH. Project founder Terence Kwok later confirmed the security incident on X, saying the issue involved a private key leak.
Bloomberg: As Bitcoin Weakens, Stablecoins and RWA Continue to Drive Expansion in Crypto Businesses
In June, Bloomberg reported that despite Bitcoin falling below $60,000 last week, wiping out about $235 billion in market value within seven days, and dropping close to 50% from last year’s peak, some core businesses in the crypto industry are still expanding, mainly in stablecoins, real-world asset tokenization (RWA), payments, and infrastructure. The report also noted that overall altcoin activity has contracted significantly: altcoin market capitalization has fallen from a peak of about $431 billion in November 2021 to around $170 billion, and among the tens of millions of tokens issued in recent years, fewer than 1,700 still maintain meaningful trading activity.
Galaxy Deep Research Report: How Hyperliquid's HIP-4 Upgrade Changes the Landscape of Prediction Markets?
Binance Research: RWA Market Expected to Expand Nearly 6x from Early 2025, with Public Equities and Onchain Payments Heating Up Together
In June, Binance Research said in its monthly market report that the real-world asset (RWA) market is expected to grow by about 589% from the beginning of 2025. Bond- and money market fund-related RWA expanded by about $6.5 billion, up 83% year over year, while publicly traded equity RWAs grew by about 422%. The report also noted that monthly crypto debit card transaction volume exceeded $747 million in May, up 48.6% year to date.
Japan to Assess a Framework for Yen Stablecoins and Crypto ETFs as Asia’s Compliant Payments Narrative Heats Up
Recently, according to the original report, Japan is considering the launch of yen stablecoins and cryptocurrency ETFs. Public information remains limited at this stage, and there is still no complete policy text, regulatory draft, or clear implementation timeline, so this is better characterized as a “policy discussion” rather than formal implementation. The original wording also noted that advancing stablecoin regulation in Asia is driving XRP usage and supporting growth in the XRPL ecosystem. However, based on currently available public information, there is not enough evidence to directly establish a clear causal relationship between this round of discussion in Japan and XRP or XRPL.
ZachXBT: Humanity private key leak and abnormal surge in H token should be viewed separately
On June 9, according to related disclosures, on-chain investigator ZachXBT posted an update on Humanity’s roughly $31 million security incident, saying that after further analyzing fund flows, he currently tends to believe the project team was not involved in an “inside job” or a self-staged attack. According to him, the official explanation about the private key leak was broadly accurate, but before the token unlock, the price of H had been artificially pushed higher, and the hacker later took advantage of that market environment; therefore, the private key leak and the earlier abnormal price pumping should be regarded as two separate and independent events. This reframing has shifted the market’s understanding of the nature of the incident. Earlier discussion around Humanity had focused on whether the team directly participated in the attack or used the security incident to cover up internal operations. ZachXBT’s latest remarks shift the focus from “whether it was self-theft” to “whether there were pre-unlock market structure issues.” He also questioned whether the team may have.
Morning Report | OpenAI has submitted an S-1 registration statement draft to the U.S. SEC; Morpho completes $175 million financing
Morning Report | BitMine increased its holdings by 126,971 ETH last week; trader Eugene announced his exit from the crypto market
Wang Chuan: How can one not feel anxious after the neighbor Old Wang made thirty times profit by investing in storage stocks? (Seven) - A quarter-century cycle
Cryptocurrency CEXs are flocking to sell US stocks, and traditional brokerages are facing an "uninvited guest."
$75 billion in foreign capital has fled, and South Korean retail investors have absorbed it all using leverage
Japan’s Three Megabanks Plan Joint Stablecoin Issuance in Fiscal 2026
MUFG, SMBC, and Mizuho reportedly plan to jointly issue fiat-pegged stablecoins in fiscal 2026, signaling Japan’s growing push into bank-led digital payment infrastructure.
Humanity Discloses H Token Dual-Chain Attack Details, With Losses on Ethereum and BSC Exceeding $36 Million
Humanity said the H token attack across Ethereum and BSC caused more than $36 million in losses after leaked ProxyAdmin keys enabled malicious contract upgrades and token minting.
SpaceX vs Tesla vs xAI: Which Elon Musk Trade Has the Biggest Upside in 2026?
OpenAI Reveals It Has Confidentially Submitted an S-1 to the SEC, Keeping the Door Open for a Future IPO
On June 9, according to an OpenAI announcement, the company recently confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), beginning the preliminary compliance process for a potential initial public offering. OpenAI said it chose to disclose this proactively because it expected the news might leak; however, the company has not yet set a specific listing timeline, and related arrangements may still take some time.
Latest research from 13 top universities including Cornell University: The current state, challenges, and misconceptions of the fusion of Crypto and AI
Deconstructing Anthropic: The Best AI Company, Possibly Also a Type of Organizational Invention
Apollo and Blackstone Reportedly Back $35 Billion Anthropic Chip Financing as Deal Details Remain Unclear
On June 9, according to currently available news alerts, Apollo and Blackstone Group participated in a $35 billion financing for an Anthropic “chip project.” Based on the original wording of the report, the funding has already been raised, but public information remains limited. The financing structure, use of proceeds, project entity, and whether Apollo and Blackstone participated through equity, debt, or project financing have not yet been disclosed.
Humanity Protocol Security Incident Escalates: More Than $31 Million Stolen From Related Addresses as Attacker Continues Selling H for ETH
On June 9, according to monitoring by Onchain Lens, more than $31 million has been stolen from addresses linked to Humanity Protocol, and the attack is still ongoing, with the hacker continuously swapping H tokens for ETH. Project founder Terence Kwok later confirmed the security incident on X, saying the issue involved a private key leak.
